Here’s where I’m off to!

Here’s where I’m off to!

It’s off to my happy place this weekend! Actually, I’m only going for one day, but I’ll take it. It’s the beach, of course! We Southern California folk are so blessed to be, for the most part, about an hour from the ocean.

I don’t know of anyone who doesn’t love the sound of crashing waves, the smell of salt in the air and the sensation of calm when sitting on the sand.

Here’s a pic from my parents balcony-I’ll be perched here most of the day. If not here, I’ll be on the sand. 🙂

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Have a wonderful and safe, long weekend. Be careful on the roads! As I tell my son, it’s all about being a defensive driver!

Onto the market update…

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index:  It seems that positive home data is beginning to slip.  According to Case-Shiller home prices in the 20 major cities measured for the month of June, slipped by 0.1 percent.  This is the 3rd straight month of declining prices.  Compared to the same time last year, prices remain higher by 5.1 percent.  Although still in positive territory, the distance between prices today versus a year ago is also slipping.  The highest breath between this year and last year was 5.7 percent back in January.

The Pacific Northwest continues to be the main area of the country where declining housing trends are non-existent.  Prices in Portland, Oregon are 12.6 percent higher than last year and Seattle remains in double digits with a 11.0 percent spread.  California continues to remain higher with the difference between last year and this year sitting in the mid-single digits.

Pending Home Sales:  The good news is that pending home sales jumped higher in July by 1.3 percent.  The not so good news is that the jump occurred from the prior month’s revision from a positive 0.2 percent down to a negative 0.8 percent.  This is one of the largest revisions we have seen and has many cautious about July’s increase, in that it may be revised next month into negative territory, the same as what occurred for June.

Pending sales are up 1.4 percent from the same time last year.  Although this does not show this sector of the market growing, it does bode well for a positive existing home sales report to be released later in the month.

Mortgage Rates and Applications:  Mortgage rates continue to remain within striking distance of record lows.  In a nice trend reversal, applications for purchases and refinances are both up for the week of August 26th.  Purchase applications rose 1.0 percent and refinance apps jumped 4.0 percent.  The prior week’s report showed declines of 0.3 percent and 3.0 percent respectively.  Overall mortgage applications are up 5.0 percent from the same time last year according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.

Construction Spending:  After the Census Bureau back in November revised 10 years of data lower due to a calculation error, many analysts are calling into question the overall accuracy of this index moving forward.  The data continues to be looked at, however many experts are not willing to accept this data as a real trend indicator for the housing market.  The latest data shows that from June to July spending remained unchanged.  Compared to the same time last year construction spending is up 1.5 percent.

Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

 

  • Monday September 5th – US Holiday: Labor Day – All Markets Closed
  • Tuesday September 6th – Labor Market Conditions & ISM Non-Mfg Index
  • Wednesday September 7th – MBA Mortgage Applications & JOLTS Report
  • Thursday September 8th – First Time Jobless Claims & EIA Petroleum Status

 

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends.  I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.  Please feel free to reach me at 661-618-1789.

 

Millennials and the market…

I recently came across this inspirational quote that seemed so fitting…

“I put my heart and my soul into my work, and have lost my mind in the process”- Vincent Van Gogh.

It’s been a nutty week, but love what I do. My mind will come back- I hope. 🙂

Happy weekend!

 

Onto the market update…

The stock market for the first time in many weeks is on the down side. Through the first four days of trading this week, the market is lower by 231 points. Despite investors being a little skittish, there are many positive signs in the economy.

The release of the latest FOMC minutes showed that there continues to be much debate amongst board members as to whether a rate increase should occur sooner than later. Two of the 17 participants wanted a hike right away. Job strength along with the stabilizing of inflation was their argument for the immediate rate increase.

Many other board members held a different view of the economy. Quite a few of them voiced concerns about inflation reversing course. Despite not all of the members having the same view, the group agreed that a gradual approach to economic policy must remain in place. Some members are pushing for a rate increase in April, where others are not quite as committed to the adjustment occurring so soon.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, mortgage applications for purchases declined by 2.0 percent while refinances increased by 7.0 percent. Rates have declined slightly, which typically will stimulate refinance activity.

The March job creation index rose all the way up to plus 32, which matches the highest level of its eight-year history. In February, the index was at 29 and has been sitting at that level since May of last year. Further proof the labor market continues to improve and remain healthy.

Although the housing market continues to remain strong, one of the most noticeable factors of the market is the absence of Millennials. There are a number of thoughts as to why this is happening. Some believe they just don’t place the same value on homeownership as their parents did.

Another view is that Millennials are not convinced that real estate is a viable investment for the future because of the instability of the market. Some Millennials when asked even said that they simply cannot afford or qualify to purchase a home because of student debt.

Regardless of the reasons, it is clear that Millennials are not in a rush to join the housing market in droves at the present time. Nonetheless, housing demand remains strong and home prices are rising even without significant Millennial participation.

Next week week’s potential market moving reports are:

 

  • Wednesday April 13th – MBA Applications, EIA Petroleum Status, Retail Sales & PPI
  • Thursday April 7th – First Time Jobless Claims and Consumer Price Index
  • Friday April 8th – Industrial Production and Consumer Sentiment

 

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can. Please feel free to reach me at 661-618-1789.