Happy 4th!

Happy long weekend!! Are you one of the lucky ones taking Monday off too? Nothing like a 4-day weekend to decompress and recharge the batteries!

I’ll be heading to the beach tomorrow for some family time and to escape this heat! The rest of the weekend will be low key for me, which is a welcome change!

I hope you have an absolutely wonderful weekend and allow yourself to rest and recharge. Stay safe on the roads! Happy Independence Day!!

Please feel free to call me if you have any loan questions or to get pre-approved!

 Onto the market update…

In recent weeks, I have been mentioning how the Summer and Fall housing markets are being predicted, by some experts, to be far above average. We should hope they are correct on account that the early Spring market was a rather large disappointment.

The latest Case-Shiller’s home price index increased by a rather small 0.3 percent in April. In February, home prices were up by 6.0 percent from the same time in the prior year. However, for the month of March, the year-on-year rate slipped back down to 5.7 percent. This is the first reversal in year-on-year spread in a very long time,

To the surprise of many, San Francisco home prices dropped 0.6 percent in the month. Boston was down by 0.7 percent and Cleveland declined by 1.0 percent. Not surprising, is Seattle leading the country with a year-on-year spread up by 12.9 percent.

Mortgage Bankers Association Loan Application Weekly Data

For the week ending June 23rd, purchase applications for home mortgages dropped by a seasonally adjusted 4 percent. The unadjusted level is actually 8 percent higher than the level in the same week a year ago. Refinancing plummeted 9 percent from the prior week, with the refinance share of mortgage activity declining to 45.6 percent of all originations.

Pending Home Sales

May was the 3rd month in a row of decline with a jaw dropping 0.8 percent. This is in direct contrast to expert predictions of a 0.5 percent gain. The weakness in the housing market is spread evenly throughout regions across the country. The West, usually the strongest market, declined by 1.3 percent, which was the largest decline recorded for the month. Although the data on final home sales does not always move in lock-step with the pending home sales data, this most recent report could prove troubling for future final sales data.

Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

 

  • Monday July 3rd – ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
  • Tuesday July 4th – Independence Day Celebration – All Markets Closed
  • Wednesday July 5th – MBA Mortgage Applications, Factory Orders, FOMC Minutes
  • Thursday July 6th – First Time Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Report
  • Friday July 7th – National Employment Situation

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.  Please feel free to reach me at 661-618-1789.

 

Traveling the world without leaving Disneyland!

Last week I went to Disneyland, as part of my “staycation.” Although I have season passes, every trip is a blast. I guess that’s the kid in me.

My all-time favorite ride at California Adventure is the “Soaring” ride, where you soar over different parts of the world, while safely sitting in your seat. I wish that ride would be much longer, as I want to experience more and more! Have you been on that ride? If not, you must go!

It reminds me of how vast this world is- how complex, yet how simple. The breathtaking views and countless places to visit make me hungry for more. I’m not particularly fond of flying, but I think I need to push past this discomfort and see more of our beautiful earth!

Happy Father’s Day to all you Dad’s! I hope you have a wonderful day, surrounded by those you love!

Onto the market update…

I remember a time that the stock market would go wild in the days leading up to a Fed announcement about interest rates. This week at the FOMC meeting, the Fed raised interest rates by ¼ percent.  The announcement came out on Wednesday afternoon at 3:15PM, and investors reacted with little more than a yawn.  The stock market ticked up about 80 points in the last 45 minutes of the trading day.  By historical standards over the last 2 years, this movement in the market was equivalent to virtually no reaction.  The interest rate increase by the Fed was expected by investors.  The Fed has indicated that based upon current economic conditions and growth patterns, one additional rate increase is anticipated before the end of 2017.

For the first half of 2017, the housing market has been very active. Recent surveys of real estate and mortgage professionals around the country have indicated that in many parts of the country, the typical summer slow-down might be taking hold.  The housing market remains quite active, however activity has seemed to tail off slightly in many areas.

Builder sentiment reflects the recent slight slowdown in activity. The latest housing market index, which measures builder optimism, showed a slight drop from 69 to 67.  Overall, the index remains very strong so by no means is this slight drop indicative of future problems for housing.  In fact, the housing market index for future sales rose to an unusually high level of 76.

There have been more and more articles in recent weeks in which housing experts are discussing the possibility of an abnormally active Fall market. It appears that homeowners are recognizing the growth in their home equity that has taken place in the last 24 months.  Some homeowners are beginning to believe that it might be time to “take the money and run”.

In many markets around the country, more homes have come up for sale in the last 30 days. This has not necessarily translated into more inventory as homes are still selling as fast as they are listed because of all the pent-up demand.  An increase in home listing in the month of June is NOT a common occurrence.  Typically, new listings tend to decline in the summer months as schools let out and more families take their summer vacations.

Mortgage rates decline, and refinance applications tick up. For the week ending June 9th, applications for refinancing jumped 9.0 percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.  Purchase applications declined by a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent.  The Memorial Day Holiday likely played a role in the slight drop for the week.

Next week there are very few reports that might influence investor decisions. Expect the stock market to remain relatively flat unless some geopolitical events impact the United States.  Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

  • Wednesday June 21st – MBA Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales
  • Thursday June 22nd – First Time Jobless Claims, FHFA House Price Index
  • Friday June 23rd – New Home Sales

 

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.  Please feel free to reach me at 661-618-1789.